The first chapter of the Premier League season is over, with a long international break, or window, running from the 21st of September right through to the 6th of October. There will be four games for England in that period, but supporters who prefer the meat and drink of club action will have to wait until the 10th of October for the return of football from the English top tier.
We are only five games into the season but, prior to the most recent round of fixtures, some media outlets were already suggesting that the title race had already been reduced to a two-horse contest. In fact, given Arsenal’s perfect seven wins from seven games, including a 3-0 victory over Manchester City in the Community Shield, there were even some who were suggesting we might as well just let the Gunners keep the Premier League trophy.
The results at the weekend suggest such analysis may be a little wide of the mark. It was a brilliant weekend for Enzo Maresca and Man City, and while we could well still be looking at a two-horse race. However, it was also a fantastic weekend for Brighton, and there will be some underdog-lovers, not to mention Seagulls fans, who are wondering if we might see another club force themselves into the title battle.
Brave Brighton Blitz Unbreachable Barrier
Last season Arsenal’s success was built on their ability to not just stop their opponents scoring, but to massively limit their shooting opportunities. The Gunners conceded eight fewer goals than next-best Man City last term. Their xG against was even more impressive, Mikel Arteta’s side giving up just 28.3 xG, compared to 44.2 for Man City, who were again second.
This season, they had been just as good and headed to the Amex to face Brighton, having conceded just once in their first four league games. However, Fabian Hürzeler’s men were simply excellent on the south coast and showed why they had scored 20 goals in their last six games.
They were brave with and without the ball, frequently committing six or seven men to a very high press that clearly rattled the Gunners. To play that way against any team carries a risk, but to do so against one as skilled as Arsenal would have been deemed foolish by many.
But Hürzeler has his team well drilled, and they made it pay, time and again turning over the ball in their attacking third. Arteta and his men did not know what had hit them, and the club’s fans were stunned to see their side lose 3-0. The Seagulls have now scored three or more goals in six of their last seven matches and sit third in the table, their only Premier League defeat being a 4-3 thriller against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.
City Cash in
Going to Brighton was always going to be a tricky game, but nobody would have predicted Arsenal would lose the way they did. Manchester City were at home against a good Sunderland side, and Maresca had said that he expected a very tough game and that he rated the Black Cats very highly. It felt like more than just mind games or managerial platitudes, but City had to win to make the most of Arsenal’s dropped points.
They went to the top of the league thanks to a thrilling 5-3 win. That leaves them as the only club in the Premier League with a 100% record. They have 15 points and are three clear of Arsenal and five ahead of Brighton.
Brian Bobbey got a treble at the Etihad, but as a team City were ruthless in front of goal. The league leaders scored five from six shots on target, with Erling Haaland getting the fifth and Antoine Semenyo netting a brace.
The scoreline perhaps flattered the home side though. The Black Cats proved Maresca’s pre-match assessment of their abilities to be correct, and the away side amassed eight big chances over the game and an xG of 3.57. In contrast, the hosts created three big chances and had an xG of 2.82. Stats do not always tell the full story, but in this instance they were a fair reflection of the overall flow of the match and the visitors will feel aggrieved not to have taken at least a point.
Gunners Still Title Favourites
There is a long way to go in this season, and much as neutrals would love to see Brighton – or in fact any club – join the top two in contesting the title late into the season, the chances are it will be Arsenal or Man City who take glory come May.
Despite the latest results, and the consequent three-point lead City have, the Gunners remain warm favourites to defend their Premier League crown. They are Evens, with City 11/8 and the field 16/1 or more. Brighton are 50/1!
That reflects the belief that the Gunners have the superior squad. It may also be down to the fact that the oddsmakers have been less taken in by last weekend’s results than some fans. After all, while Sunderland posted a superior xG to City, Arsenal, despite their 3-0 loss, also had a higher xG than Brighton (1.63 versus 1.31).