Could Spurs Finish Above Arsenal Next Season?

With Spurs having finished 44 points behind north London rivals Arsenal last season, it seems rather ludicrous to suggest there might be no St Totteringham’s Day in 2026/27. However, is the idea quite as crazy as it sounds?

Here, we look at both sides of the argument, assessing whether there is a realistic case for Arsenal finishing below their north London rivals for the first time since 2021/22.

Reasons Why Spurs Won’t Catch Arsenal

There was a time, not too long ago, when Spurs were the best team in north London. For six consecutive seasons, between 2016/17 and 2021/22, Arsenal finished behind their local rivals. Since then, however, a huge gulf has opened up, with the Gunners establishing themselves as one of the Premier League’s strongest sides.

In the last four seasons, the closest Spurs have come to Arsenal was in 2023/24, when they finished three places and 23 points behind. They would need to overturn almost double that gap to finish above the Gunners in 2026/27, which would represent a remarkable swing in just one season.

Some will point to Tottenham’s much-improved squad after spending around £230m on Jan Paul van Hecke, Mateus Fernandes and Sandro Tonali, alongside smart free transfers such as Marcos Senesi and Andy Robertson. Reports also suggest Spurs are not finished in the transfer market and could strengthen further in attack, a sensible move given Xavi Simons, Wilson Odobert, Dejan Kulusevski and possibly Mohammed Kudus are expected to miss the start of the season.

Bringing in so many players rarely leads to instant success, though, as new signings need time to settle. Liverpool and Chelsea were the biggest spenders last season, but both endured underwhelming campaigns. While spending heavily can pay off, as Brighton showed in 2024/25, it is no guarantee. New players can struggle to adapt, fail to suit the manager’s system or, in Spurs’ case, end up on the treatment table.

Speaking of injuries, Tottenham’s current absentees serve as another reminder of their persistent injury problems, which have now stretched across two years. At some stage it becomes difficult to blame bad luck alone. If those issues continue, performances are likely to suffer despite the added squad depth.

Reasons Why Spurs Might Catch Arsenal

On the other hand, Tottenham looked much improved under Roberto De Zerbi towards the end of last season. He lost only two matches in charge, and Spurs were producing some of the league’s strongest defensive numbers. On paper, they have recruited well and still have the financial capacity to strengthen in attack. If they do, they could have a squad capable of challenging for the top four. They also have the advantage of no European football this season, something that clearly benefited Manchester United last campaign.

Arsenal, meanwhile, will begin the season without William Saliba, and that could prove a huge blow. The Gunners have reportedly been looking for defensive reinforcements to fill the temporary gap, but John Stones appears Inter-bound, while Aston Villa’s asking price for Ezri Konsa could prove prohibitive. With other targets in other areas also difficult to land, Arsenal’s only major signing so far has been Christos Tzolis. The £34m Greek attacker could prove a smart addition, but it may not be enough for a side looking to defend the title.

More transfers could still arrive, perhaps even the ambitious pursuit of Vinicius Junior, but if not, Arsenal risk sliding down the table a little. Several key players logged huge minutes last season, and another demanding campaign could take its toll. Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka, for example, would certainly benefit from having greater rotation, something which is yet to arrive.

It is also worth remembering that Premier League champions often fail to reach the same level the following season. Of the last 14 Premier League champions, all but two recorded fewer points the following season (Man City in both 2021/22 and 2023/24). There are a variety of reasons for this but it’s not a record which bodes well for Arsenal.

What Do the Bookies Think?

Tottenham to finish above Arsenal is available at 5/1, implying a 16.7% chance of happening. Arsenal to finish higher is priced at 1/8, an implied probability of 88.9%. The market suggests Spurs overtaking Arsenal is unlikely, but not in the same category as an extreme outsider such as Coventry finishing above the Gunners at 100/1.

For a team that has finished 17th in consecutive seasons, the bookmakers appear surprisingly optimistic of how Spurs will fare this season. Odds of 5/1 to finish above the reigning champions seem very short for a club that spent much of last season plagued by relegation fears. While it is not a wager we’ll be backing, we do expect St Totteringham’s Day to fall much later this year, given Spurs are likely to improve, and the Gunners are at risk of regressing.